English Covid 19 Deaths to drop to zero by 10th May

Using Public Health England data for daily deaths in hospitals attributed to Covid-19, we use a simple linear extrapolation to suggest that deaths in hospitals will drop to zero by the 10th May 2020 — Chart 1. We have noted that the drop off in deaths is currently following a linear pattern.

Chart 1 — Estimating the end of Covid-19 deaths in English hospitals

Source: Public Health England, our estimates