When will deaths from Covid-19 stop in Europe

We have looked at the decline rates for reported deaths in Europe since the peak and have some tentative conclusions about the likely date when the number of those dying each day in Europe will drop into low single digits.

Given the lags between catching the disease and fatalities, our estimates will not alter regardless of government action now, with the exception of the UK and the Netherlands. The table below shows our estimates.

A very simple model to predict single digit fatalities in Europe